No immediate storm ahead, but insurers should use the lull to build portfolio resilience
- 17 January 2022 (10 min read)
Key points
- Our central scenario remains positive for 2022
- The hunt for yield is still top of insurers’ agendas
- Inflation and interest rate uncertainty remain centre stage
- Insurers should consider enhancing diversification and risk management
- For many, 2022 will be a transition year from a regulatory perspective
- Sustainable investing should expand across all portfolios
Lingering COVID-19-related supply-side disruptions, alongside a significant rebound in consumer demand, are producing supply bottlenecks and an inflation rate not seen for decades. We expect 2022 to be a year of gradual absorption of the pandemic shock, with robust but less spectacular growth, while pressures on global supply gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation. A gradual convergence of ‘transitory’ inflation rates towards their target would allow central banks to remain prudent with the pace of monetary policy normalisation, making it digestible for investors as currently priced in to bond and equity markets.
This baseline outlook for 2022 is valid on the assumption that most economies continue to supress COVID-19 flare-ups and manage to remain open. It also presupposes a normalisation of the US employment participation rate in easing pressure on wages. There is still uncertainty on the impact of the pandemic on global economic trends, inflation dynamics, suggesting that investors should also plan for more adverse trajectories.
A worse outcome would be even higher inflation and a more aggressive than expected tightening of monetary policy. Additionally, a sharp rise in real yields would derail growth and earnings momentum and deliver a shock to bond and equity markets.
Transitory or not, inflation is back. Monetary policy is being adjusted while quantitative easing support is easing. In our central scenario, a modest increase in interest rates should allow investors to still enjoy decent returns, especially as they catch investment opportunities and follow capital flows allocated to the climate transition.
But market history shows that bouts of volatility are never far away. This has multiple implications for insurance companies, especially when considering the structure of their balance sheets and current developments in regulatory capital and accounting standards.
Disclaimer
This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia (Singapore) Ltd (ARBN 115203622) (“AXA IM Asia”). AXA IM Asia is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services License and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singaporean laws, which differ from Australian laws. AXA IM Asia offers financial services in Australia only to residents who are “wholesale clients" within the meaning of Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.
All investment involves risk , including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Disclaimer
This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Australia Ltd (ABN 47 107 346 841 AFSL 273320) (“AXA IM Australia”) and is intended only for professional investors, sophisticated investors and wholesale clients as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).
This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Market commentary on the website has been prepared for general informational purposes by the authors, who are part of AXA Investment Managers. This market commentary reflects the views of the authors, and statements in it may differ from the views of others in AXA Investment Managers.
Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.
All investment involves risk , including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.