Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

September Global Macro Monthly - Summer passes, winter’s coming

  • 28 September 2022 (7 min read)

Key points

  • An energy crunch appears to be materialising with Germany and CEE countries most affected.
  • We forecast recession in the Eurozone, with a sharp contraction in coming quarters. The UK also looks set to experience recession, despite a fiscal package that has undermined confidence in UK markets.
  • Chinese activity struggles on housing restructuring and COVID. We lower our 2022 growth outlook to 3%.
  • US activity has been mixed, with falling gasoline providing short-term relief. Still there is overwhelming expectation of stagnation or outright contraction.
  • The Fed continues to tighten policy aggressively. While most other central banks follow, the dollar continues to rise, threatening broader instability.
  • Financial conditions have tightened. The rate outlook will ease only once tighter conditions visibly slow growth.

Related Documents

Full Global Macro Monthly - September 2022
Download article (1.04 MB)
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.

Visit the Investment Institute

Related Articles

Monthly Market Update

June Monthly Investment Strategy - The times they are a-changin’

  • by David Page, Hugo Le Damany, and others
  • 26 June 2024 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

June Op-Ed - Political risks get in the way of decent macro

Monthly Market Update

March Global Macro Monthly - Inflation divergence to drive monetary tensions

    Disclaimer

    This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Australia Ltd (ABN 47 107 346 841 AFSL 273320) (“AXA IM Australia”) and is intended only for professional investors, sophisticated investors and wholesale clients as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

    This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Market commentary on the website has been prepared for general informational purposes by the authors, who are part of AXA Investment Managers. This market commentary reflects the views of the authors, and statements in it may differ from the views of others in AXA Investment Managers.

    Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

    All investment involves risk , including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.