Investment Institute
Monthly Market Update

June Global Macro Monthly - A summer of discontent

  • 29 June 2022 (10 min read)

Key points

  • Our global outlook was more pessimistic than consensus at the start of this year but weakened materially after the Ukraine invasion. Consensus has converged towards our view in recent months
  • We lower our forecasts modestly for the US, more for China and rebalance them in the Eurozone for a weaker 2023. We do not see recession as an inevitable outcome, but it is a risk in the US and even closer across Europe
  • Inflation continues to rise as the war impacts food and energy prices, which risks spilling further into the summer
  • But domestic developments dominate our long-term inflation outlook. Wages are rising in tight labour markets. Industrial action in several economies will exacerbate this trend. While highly visible price increases also risk dislodging longer-term inflation expectations
  • Fears around expectations have spurred central banks to more forceful rate increase – a shift that has tightened financial conditions materially. The avoidance of recession will in part hinge on the scale of tightening from here

Related Documents

Full Global Macro Monthly - June 2022
Download article (787.25 KB)
Full slide deck of our June Global Monthly Strategy
Download the full deck (2.03 MB)
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions

Visit the investment institute

Related Articles

Monthly Market Update

July Op-Ed - Signs of recession accumulating, but is it fully in the price?

  • by Gilles Moëc , Chris Iggo
  • 27 July 2022 (7 min read)
Monthly Market Update

July Global Macro Monthly - Temperature keeps on rising for central banks

  • by AXA IM Investment Institute
  • 27 July 2022 (10 min read)
Monthly Market Update

June Op-Ed - Stories for the summer

  • by Gilles Moëc , Chris Iggo
  • 29 June 2022 (5 min read)

    Disclaimer

    This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Australia Ltd (ABN 47 107 346 841 AFSL 273320) (“AXA IM Australia”) and is intended only for professional investors, sophisticated investors and wholesale clients as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

    This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    Market commentary on the website has been prepared for general informational purposes by the authors, who are part of AXA Investment Managers. This market commentary reflects the views of the authors, and statements in it may differ from the views of others in AXA Investment Managers.

    Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

    All investment involves risk , including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.